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The iPad Is Steadily Consuming the Mac

4/1/2023

 
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It never ceases to amaze me how Apple pundits living in their own little echo chambers all ignore observable evidence by Apple and come to the wrong conclusions. The latest example of a silly theory that they all seem to support is that Apple doesn’t want the iPad Pro to grow more productive because that is Mac territory.
A big element of this renewed discussion seems to be the fact that the Mac has gained Apple silicon. But a faster processor which gives better battery life does nothing to change all the drawbacks of a laptop compared to the superior tablet form factor. In fact, putting Apple silicon into the Mac lends weight to the theory that the ipad is actually going to dominate the future. 
 
Now, remember, these iPad detractors are the same people that said the iPad would never get mouse support. Then they all moved the goal posts back and said that the iPad would never get full monitor support. The latest “never” is that the iPad will never get improved windowing or multi-tasking.
<<< sigh >>>
 
But if you look at the evidence objectively, you see that the iPad is on a long arc towards becoming the premier productivity device. In recent years it’s been taking significant steps with every new software release. It’s gained split-screen multi-tasking, trackpad support, external hard drive access, and true monitor support. It looks to me like an unstoppable march into Mac territory. 
 
Not only that, the Mac is becoming more like the iPad. The Mac is now getting apps created with the iPad programming language. The Mac is now using Apple silicon from the iPad. The Mac’s circuit board construction is evolving to become more like the iPad. The Mac software design language is becoming more like the iPad. The touch points on the Mac are becoming larger…like the iPad. 
 
Craig Federighi’s assertion a few years back that Apple had no intention of merging the Mac and ipad needs to be taken with two points in mind. 
 
First, Apple statements about their future plans are always made in regards to their current plan. Those plans can and do change. They are dynamic. 
 
Second, Apple could morph the Mac hardware into a more powerful version of the iPad and remain truthful to the fact that they didn’t merge the two operating systems. In fact, if you take a look at all the observable evidence thus far, this is what it looks like they are doing. Or they could turn MacOS into a variant of iPadOS just like TVOS and HomePod OS are variants of iOS. The name MacOS would still exist but it’s actually just iPadOS with a different name. But Craig’s statement would remain true. 
 
I’ve repeatedly stated that if you are trying to guess which option Apple might choose, create a profit model for each option. Apple will usually pick the choice that results in greater long term profit growth. 
 
And if you look at the cost savings and profit growth for turning the Mac into an iPad variant. The favorable impact to the income statement is off the charts. The benefits are so huge that Apple leadership is most certainly discussing how to make it happen if they haven’t already been on this course for a few years now. 
 
All the people now proclaiming that the iPad will never intrude onto the Mac’s territory are going to look quite foolish in about five years. Because very soon, the Mac as we know it, won’t even exist. Oh, the name will exist. It’s going to look like a landscape full of various models of the ipad. Why? Because that is the most profitable option.

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    Robert Perez

    Manufacturing and distribution analysis since 1993.

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