Who Is Buying All Those Plus-Sized iPhones?
In Apple’s Q1 earnings release this week there were some disappointing sales figures for the iPad. Compared to the same quarter last year sales were down 19% to 13 million units. That’s a drop of 3 million units compared to last year.
The logical question posed in light of these sales figures is whether or not there will ever be a shift from laptops to tablets.
The logical question posed in light of these sales figures is whether or not there will ever be a shift from laptops to tablets.
The answer is yes and maybe. Yes, the move away from laptops is still underway. But are people moving necessarily to tablets? Could a great deal of people think that all they need is a big iPhone?
I’m now beginning to wonder if I’m just as guilty of making assumptions as the diehard MacBook crowd. I’m assuming that the iPad would be the main benefactor of people’s shift from laptops because I can’t imagine anyone working on a small screen and not having a keyboard. But maybe my judgement is being clouded by the fact that I spend a lot more time typing than most people? And how many people really use spreadsheets very often?
I have three teenagers in my house who all seem perfectly happy typing out long messages with their thumbs. I find typing with two of my fingers as opposed to all ten annoying and inefficient. So if I have to write more than a couple of sentences I’m immediately reaching for my iPad and Smart Keyboard. It’s my recognition of the value of the laptop which led me to believe that the iPad would be the main benefactor of the laptops demise. Because the iPad with its large screen and attachable keyboard can become very laptop-like whereas the iPhone can’t. But most people don’t need a keyboard or big screen nearly as much as I do. So maybe a significant percentage of laptop quitters are going all iPhone?
I've long noticed that if you combine the iPad and iPhone sales volume that it looks like iPad sales are migrating to the iPhone. Even in this latest Q1 year over year comparison. The iPad is down 3 million units whereas the iPhone is up 3.5 million. Even more telling, the iPhone 7 Plus is where the strongest growth is. Outside of Europe and America it’s already been a thing for the masses to use their smartphone as their main device. Maybe this is creeping into markets in which the laptop has been the historical bedrock of personal computing?
The iPhone is the gift that keeps on giving for Apple. A lot of the new MacBook owners are coming to MacOS because of their positive experience with the iPhone. I’d love to see what percentage of MacBook sales are to people who never purchased a Mac before. I bought my first MacBook in 2012 largely because I liked the idea of seamlessly integrating all of my personal data from my iPhone to my laptop. Prior to MacBooks I was a diehard Windows guy. And since 2012 I’ve purchased five more MacBooks.
But I will never buy another MacBook because the iPad is half the price and does what I need. The new MacBook owners which the iPhone lures into the fold are also the most likely to defect to the iPad. That’s because they don’t have years of muscle-memory reaching for various Mac-only power tools. Plus, we were familiar and comfortable with iOS long before we ever touched MacOS. When you’re coming from a Windows background, learning MacOS is a splash of cold water whereas settling into an iPad on iOS is like stepping into a warm bath.
It should also be noted that this 19% drop from last year is only a reduction in the iPads rate of growth. The iPad installed base is still growing every quarter. So as more and more people introduce iPads into their lives, a percentage of these new iPad owners will eventually decide that they never need to buy another laptop. There will be a constant hemorrhage in the MacBook line offset by new Windows converts.
Can a laptop allow you to handwrite notes? Can you take your laptop out into the backyard to snap a great picture of something you want to list on eBay? Are you going to get cozy with your laptop on your next long road trip? Can you use your laptop while sitting in the drivers seat of a vehicle? If you break your iPhone can you take your laptop with you around town as a temporary substitute? For these reasons and many more, the tablet form factor will continue to eat away at the laptop market. However, I’ve come to realize that these same reasons cut both ways for the tablet form factor because the iPhone can beat the tablet at it’s own game.
The iPhone 7 Plus has a smaller screen but this liability is offset in that it is more convenient to carry around than a tablet. If someone is of the mindset that they’ve already asked “Why do I need a separate laptop and a tablet?”. It’s not a huge leap for that same person to eventually go all KonMari and immediately start to question why they need both a phablet and a tablet?
The iPad will benefit from some future trends even if the iPhone continues to siphon some of it’s user base.
So the iPad will continue to gain more and more laptop converts. The question is whether or not it gains more than it loses to the Plus-sized iPhones.
I’m now beginning to wonder if I’m just as guilty of making assumptions as the diehard MacBook crowd. I’m assuming that the iPad would be the main benefactor of people’s shift from laptops because I can’t imagine anyone working on a small screen and not having a keyboard. But maybe my judgement is being clouded by the fact that I spend a lot more time typing than most people? And how many people really use spreadsheets very often?
I have three teenagers in my house who all seem perfectly happy typing out long messages with their thumbs. I find typing with two of my fingers as opposed to all ten annoying and inefficient. So if I have to write more than a couple of sentences I’m immediately reaching for my iPad and Smart Keyboard. It’s my recognition of the value of the laptop which led me to believe that the iPad would be the main benefactor of the laptops demise. Because the iPad with its large screen and attachable keyboard can become very laptop-like whereas the iPhone can’t. But most people don’t need a keyboard or big screen nearly as much as I do. So maybe a significant percentage of laptop quitters are going all iPhone?
I've long noticed that if you combine the iPad and iPhone sales volume that it looks like iPad sales are migrating to the iPhone. Even in this latest Q1 year over year comparison. The iPad is down 3 million units whereas the iPhone is up 3.5 million. Even more telling, the iPhone 7 Plus is where the strongest growth is. Outside of Europe and America it’s already been a thing for the masses to use their smartphone as their main device. Maybe this is creeping into markets in which the laptop has been the historical bedrock of personal computing?
The iPhone is the gift that keeps on giving for Apple. A lot of the new MacBook owners are coming to MacOS because of their positive experience with the iPhone. I’d love to see what percentage of MacBook sales are to people who never purchased a Mac before. I bought my first MacBook in 2012 largely because I liked the idea of seamlessly integrating all of my personal data from my iPhone to my laptop. Prior to MacBooks I was a diehard Windows guy. And since 2012 I’ve purchased five more MacBooks.
But I will never buy another MacBook because the iPad is half the price and does what I need. The new MacBook owners which the iPhone lures into the fold are also the most likely to defect to the iPad. That’s because they don’t have years of muscle-memory reaching for various Mac-only power tools. Plus, we were familiar and comfortable with iOS long before we ever touched MacOS. When you’re coming from a Windows background, learning MacOS is a splash of cold water whereas settling into an iPad on iOS is like stepping into a warm bath.
It should also be noted that this 19% drop from last year is only a reduction in the iPads rate of growth. The iPad installed base is still growing every quarter. So as more and more people introduce iPads into their lives, a percentage of these new iPad owners will eventually decide that they never need to buy another laptop. There will be a constant hemorrhage in the MacBook line offset by new Windows converts.
Can a laptop allow you to handwrite notes? Can you take your laptop out into the backyard to snap a great picture of something you want to list on eBay? Are you going to get cozy with your laptop on your next long road trip? Can you use your laptop while sitting in the drivers seat of a vehicle? If you break your iPhone can you take your laptop with you around town as a temporary substitute? For these reasons and many more, the tablet form factor will continue to eat away at the laptop market. However, I’ve come to realize that these same reasons cut both ways for the tablet form factor because the iPhone can beat the tablet at it’s own game.
The iPhone 7 Plus has a smaller screen but this liability is offset in that it is more convenient to carry around than a tablet. If someone is of the mindset that they’ve already asked “Why do I need a separate laptop and a tablet?”. It’s not a huge leap for that same person to eventually go all KonMari and immediately start to question why they need both a phablet and a tablet?
The iPad will benefit from some future trends even if the iPhone continues to siphon some of it’s user base.
- Enterprise sales will slide more and more towards Windows tablets and convertibles. Even though this doesn’t directly benefit Apple, this influences the mindset of all those employees who use Macs for personal use.
- Even though Windows tablets will take the lions share of the enterprise market due to cost conscious IT departments, the iPad is becoming more and more commonplace in corporate settings due to the iPhone’s enterprise predominance.
- iPads and iOS will continue to grow more capable and more powerful.
So the iPad will continue to gain more and more laptop converts. The question is whether or not it gains more than it loses to the Plus-sized iPhones.
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