I’ve done logistics analysis at the Fortune 500 level long enough to learn one thing: if new technology doesn’t impact the “master logistics equation” very much, nothing is going to change. That’s why I’m skeptical about the social impact of self-driving cars.
Here is the master logistics equation:
(Distance x Cost)/Pounds = Delivery Cost Per Pound
The delivery cost per pound is incorporated into a product’s income statement. There needs to be an improvement on the bottom line to justify investment in capital equipment.
At the micro level, self-driving cars may change YOUR life quite a bit in relatively frivolous ways. However, in the end, you still have only so many hours of the day that you allocate for travel, and you can only go so many miles. So even then, the impact will be minimal.
At the macro level, it’s much the same. Everything is measured against the all important “cost per pound” and if that doesn’t change much, then don’t expect big social upheaval. The way we live and the way our cities are built will evolve slowly. That’s because even if corporations are spending less on paying drivers, they are paying more for capital equipment. At best, it’s an incremental improvement in the cost per mile, not a monumental leap.
There are technologies that will radically impact the logistic equation. I’m just saying that self-driving vehicles are not one of them. 3D printing is an example of something that could radically change the world.
For self-driving trucks, a mile is still a mile and they can’t carry any more pounds than a regular truck. So, the potential to alter the cost per mile is limited. However, 3D printing can completely upend the master logistics equation.
With 3D printing, miles become almost irrelevant. If a company in Seattle, Washington creates and sells a new design, they can deliver it anywhere in the world instantaneously via the internet. There is no fuel delivery cost or weight limit on data.
The recipient of the designs, however, will need to transport pounds of product to “manufacture” his design. However, he is free to source his raw materials from his lowest cost supplier and not forced to use whoever the company in Seattle favored. If the consumer lives in Paris, France, his low-cost supplier will most likely be local. Logistics is a major cost component of any physical object, so local suppliers will always have a major cost advantage.
3D printing so radically alters the logistics cost equation that I’m not even qualified to discuss how society may change. I just know that everything will be cheaper. Depending on how sophisticated 3D printing gets, you could see big changes in where people live and work.
3D printing would most certainly be necessary for people to live on the moon or mars. Transporting everything that far would be cost prohibitive. But advancements in materials technology could allow the use of local raw materials to make the designs.
And this shift has already started. Even now, there are already advancements being made in many areas. Here’s a small handful of headlines that have caught my eye in just the last few weeks:
3-D printed houses are going from hype to habitable in the Netherlands
How 3D printing is revolutionizing healthcare as we know it – Bioprinting Organs, Skin, & Drugs
How 3D printing is revolutionizing the housing industry
Scientists have 3D printed the most advanced artificial cornea ever using human cells
The challenge for science is to see how far we can go with 3D printing. It’s hard to imagine anything like a car or an iPhone ever getting 3D printed locally. But to radically transform society, those items wouldn’t be necessary. Simply producing household items like furniture, utensils, or artwork would greatly reduce the number of items that consumers have delivered to their homes today.
The overall delivery cost per pound is drastically reduced, even if you include local sourcing. The ripple effect to the oil & gas industry, catalog retailers, or freight companies could be major.
This makes the science of transporting physical objects via over-the-road methods or even spaceships antiquated. It’s from the last century. Self-driving technology is about taking you to the world, 3D printing is about bringing the world to you. Digitizing what we need and beaming it across the world (or worlds) to be created locally is the future.
(Distance x Cost)/Pounds = Delivery Cost Per Pound
The delivery cost per pound is incorporated into a product’s income statement. There needs to be an improvement on the bottom line to justify investment in capital equipment.
At the micro level, self-driving cars may change YOUR life quite a bit in relatively frivolous ways. However, in the end, you still have only so many hours of the day that you allocate for travel, and you can only go so many miles. So even then, the impact will be minimal.
At the macro level, it’s much the same. Everything is measured against the all important “cost per pound” and if that doesn’t change much, then don’t expect big social upheaval. The way we live and the way our cities are built will evolve slowly. That’s because even if corporations are spending less on paying drivers, they are paying more for capital equipment. At best, it’s an incremental improvement in the cost per mile, not a monumental leap.
There are technologies that will radically impact the logistic equation. I’m just saying that self-driving vehicles are not one of them. 3D printing is an example of something that could radically change the world.
For self-driving trucks, a mile is still a mile and they can’t carry any more pounds than a regular truck. So, the potential to alter the cost per mile is limited. However, 3D printing can completely upend the master logistics equation.
With 3D printing, miles become almost irrelevant. If a company in Seattle, Washington creates and sells a new design, they can deliver it anywhere in the world instantaneously via the internet. There is no fuel delivery cost or weight limit on data.
The recipient of the designs, however, will need to transport pounds of product to “manufacture” his design. However, he is free to source his raw materials from his lowest cost supplier and not forced to use whoever the company in Seattle favored. If the consumer lives in Paris, France, his low-cost supplier will most likely be local. Logistics is a major cost component of any physical object, so local suppliers will always have a major cost advantage.
3D printing so radically alters the logistics cost equation that I’m not even qualified to discuss how society may change. I just know that everything will be cheaper. Depending on how sophisticated 3D printing gets, you could see big changes in where people live and work.
3D printing would most certainly be necessary for people to live on the moon or mars. Transporting everything that far would be cost prohibitive. But advancements in materials technology could allow the use of local raw materials to make the designs.
And this shift has already started. Even now, there are already advancements being made in many areas. Here’s a small handful of headlines that have caught my eye in just the last few weeks:
3-D printed houses are going from hype to habitable in the Netherlands
How 3D printing is revolutionizing healthcare as we know it – Bioprinting Organs, Skin, & Drugs
How 3D printing is revolutionizing the housing industry
Scientists have 3D printed the most advanced artificial cornea ever using human cells
The challenge for science is to see how far we can go with 3D printing. It’s hard to imagine anything like a car or an iPhone ever getting 3D printed locally. But to radically transform society, those items wouldn’t be necessary. Simply producing household items like furniture, utensils, or artwork would greatly reduce the number of items that consumers have delivered to their homes today.
The overall delivery cost per pound is drastically reduced, even if you include local sourcing. The ripple effect to the oil & gas industry, catalog retailers, or freight companies could be major.
This makes the science of transporting physical objects via over-the-road methods or even spaceships antiquated. It’s from the last century. Self-driving technology is about taking you to the world, 3D printing is about bringing the world to you. Digitizing what we need and beaming it across the world (or worlds) to be created locally is the future.
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