This may come as as surprise to most people, but neither the networks or social media decides who won the presidential race. They are simply “projecting” who will win the official final vote ratification on December 14th. So all the network pronouncements of a Biden/Harris win carry as much weight as a tweet from President Trump.
Regardless of how you feel about the candidates, it seems that the American election system is working as intended. The only problem is that most people don’t really understand that the real winner isn’t designated until December 14th when the states ratify the delegate count. Usually, this isn’t an issue, so most people are unaware of the ebbs and flows with election results. But if a race is close, there are three phases to counting the votes. Currently, the presidential race has only just started phase 3.
Historical Perspective
I like to think that I played a small role in South Dakota’s 2004 senate race that saw John Thune unseat then Speaker of the House Tom Daschle. I was working with the Chamber of Commerce in meeting with small business owners to discuss the policy differences between Thune and Daschle. Those race results sent shockwaves through national politics for years to come. But most people don’t know the backstory that occurred 2 years prior.
In 2002, I was volunteering with the Thune campaign in their effort to unseat Senator Tim Johnson. On election night when we all went to bed, Thune was ahead in the vote count but not by much. Overnight the election shifted when the count for outstanding absentee ballots from the heavily Democratic Indian reservations came in. When we all woke up the next morning, Thune had lost the race by 526 votes.
John Thune was well within his rights to call for a recount, but he didn’t. Most people don’t understand what a recount really means. It means going through and making sure that all of the votes are valid. For instance, some people may have cast an absentee ballot and later voted in person. On election night, there is no time to cross-reference absentee ballots against voter rolls. That happens in the recount if necessary.
The Vote Phases
The Democrats love to say “Every vote counts.” But the Republicans say alternatively “No one is entitled to more than one vote.” Those absentee ballots need to be thrown out if it’s a double-vote. Or perhaps there were absentee ballots that bypassed the chain of custody. You can’t have partisan operatives trying to slide in mysterious boxes of ballots at the last minute. This is why election cut-off times are a serious matter.
In South Dakota’s case, there were busloads of out-of-state workers numbering in the hundreds that violated voter registration guidelines and fraudulently cast votes in South Dakota’s election. The only problem was that we didn’t find out until weeks later.
So voting really has 3 phases.
Phase 1 – Calculating in-person votes at the polls
Phase 2 – Counting the absentee and early votes
And if necessary:
Phase 3 – Validating the voters in a close election
I’m not trying to say that Donald Trump won the election. My point is that he is simply following protocol. Trump actually has more standing to call for a recount now than Al Gore had in 2000. The media is trying to portray his actions as some kind of deranged power grab. Based on my prior experience in politics, Donald Trump is doing what anyone would do in this case. We are about to enter phase 3 of the presidential election which involves peeling away invalid votes. And most of those votes would be Democratic Biden votes.
Pennsylvania
Here is an example of a battle Trump is likely to win, explained thoroughly by Dr. Steve Turley on his YouTube channel. October 21st, 2019, the Pennsylvania legislature unambiguously passed Act 77 which stated “No absentee ballot…shall be counted which is received in the office of the county board of elections later than eight o’clock P.M. on the day of the primary or election.” The Pennsylvania Supreme Court several weeks ago changed the standard to postmarked on or before Election Day and received within three days of the election. Yet, according to Act 77, “If any provision of this act….is held invalid, the remaining provisions or applications of this act are void,” the act to allow absentee ballots.
Accordingly, the Pennsylvania Republican Party filed petitions with the U.S. Supreme Court on October 28 for
The fake news media was full of headlines that the Supreme Court rejected the Pennsylvania GOP’s petition to overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That wasn’t true. What was rejected was the request for expedition because it was so close to Election Day, but they did promise to review the decision itself after the election. The Supreme Court will review the lower court’s decision and may overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision to move the deadline goalpost. When your start to hear about this in the news, remember that you read it here first.
All of the recounts and court battles will continue until December 14th. Remember, whoever gained the most during phase 2, Joe Biden, will lose the most in phase 3. This is the natural ebb and flow.
Could Trump Still Win?
Of course, the Democrats are following standard protocol for a close election. Proceed as if you are the winner. This is also nothing new. The only oddity here is that Biden was arguing only days earlier that the American people needed to be patient and let the system work. He said it was important that the integrity of the election be upheld. If he’s serious about that statement, he would agree to the recounts and ballot validations. But now he’s in the position of watching his lead dwindle and perhaps being overtaken.
No one knows if Trump could still win at this point. But one thing is certain, if Trump doesn’t concede, he could very well gain on Biden with each passing day. The question is whether he can gain enough to win. With recounts, Trump could probably win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. The big question is in Nevada. If the Trump campaign doesn’t think they have a chance in Nevada, they may call off all challenges and concede. It does them no good to win in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia if they lose Nevada. They’d still be 5 delegates short and Biden still wins.
The Republicans went through this in 2000 when George W. Bush was the disputed President-elect. He let the system do its thing, and he wasn’t really the winner until the vote ratification in December. Now the shoe is on the other foot for the Democrats, and they need to swallow their own medicine. Take your own advice Joe--be patient and let the system work.
Historical Perspective
I like to think that I played a small role in South Dakota’s 2004 senate race that saw John Thune unseat then Speaker of the House Tom Daschle. I was working with the Chamber of Commerce in meeting with small business owners to discuss the policy differences between Thune and Daschle. Those race results sent shockwaves through national politics for years to come. But most people don’t know the backstory that occurred 2 years prior.
In 2002, I was volunteering with the Thune campaign in their effort to unseat Senator Tim Johnson. On election night when we all went to bed, Thune was ahead in the vote count but not by much. Overnight the election shifted when the count for outstanding absentee ballots from the heavily Democratic Indian reservations came in. When we all woke up the next morning, Thune had lost the race by 526 votes.
John Thune was well within his rights to call for a recount, but he didn’t. Most people don’t understand what a recount really means. It means going through and making sure that all of the votes are valid. For instance, some people may have cast an absentee ballot and later voted in person. On election night, there is no time to cross-reference absentee ballots against voter rolls. That happens in the recount if necessary.
The Vote Phases
The Democrats love to say “Every vote counts.” But the Republicans say alternatively “No one is entitled to more than one vote.” Those absentee ballots need to be thrown out if it’s a double-vote. Or perhaps there were absentee ballots that bypassed the chain of custody. You can’t have partisan operatives trying to slide in mysterious boxes of ballots at the last minute. This is why election cut-off times are a serious matter.
In South Dakota’s case, there were busloads of out-of-state workers numbering in the hundreds that violated voter registration guidelines and fraudulently cast votes in South Dakota’s election. The only problem was that we didn’t find out until weeks later.
So voting really has 3 phases.
Phase 1 – Calculating in-person votes at the polls
Phase 2 – Counting the absentee and early votes
And if necessary:
Phase 3 – Validating the voters in a close election
I’m not trying to say that Donald Trump won the election. My point is that he is simply following protocol. Trump actually has more standing to call for a recount now than Al Gore had in 2000. The media is trying to portray his actions as some kind of deranged power grab. Based on my prior experience in politics, Donald Trump is doing what anyone would do in this case. We are about to enter phase 3 of the presidential election which involves peeling away invalid votes. And most of those votes would be Democratic Biden votes.
Pennsylvania
Here is an example of a battle Trump is likely to win, explained thoroughly by Dr. Steve Turley on his YouTube channel. October 21st, 2019, the Pennsylvania legislature unambiguously passed Act 77 which stated “No absentee ballot…shall be counted which is received in the office of the county board of elections later than eight o’clock P.M. on the day of the primary or election.” The Pennsylvania Supreme Court several weeks ago changed the standard to postmarked on or before Election Day and received within three days of the election. Yet, according to Act 77, “If any provision of this act….is held invalid, the remaining provisions or applications of this act are void,” the act to allow absentee ballots.
Accordingly, the Pennsylvania Republican Party filed petitions with the U.S. Supreme Court on October 28 for
- Writ of Review of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s Decision
- Expedition of the Writ of Review request
The fake news media was full of headlines that the Supreme Court rejected the Pennsylvania GOP’s petition to overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That wasn’t true. What was rejected was the request for expedition because it was so close to Election Day, but they did promise to review the decision itself after the election. The Supreme Court will review the lower court’s decision and may overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision to move the deadline goalpost. When your start to hear about this in the news, remember that you read it here first.
All of the recounts and court battles will continue until December 14th. Remember, whoever gained the most during phase 2, Joe Biden, will lose the most in phase 3. This is the natural ebb and flow.
Could Trump Still Win?
Of course, the Democrats are following standard protocol for a close election. Proceed as if you are the winner. This is also nothing new. The only oddity here is that Biden was arguing only days earlier that the American people needed to be patient and let the system work. He said it was important that the integrity of the election be upheld. If he’s serious about that statement, he would agree to the recounts and ballot validations. But now he’s in the position of watching his lead dwindle and perhaps being overtaken.
No one knows if Trump could still win at this point. But one thing is certain, if Trump doesn’t concede, he could very well gain on Biden with each passing day. The question is whether he can gain enough to win. With recounts, Trump could probably win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. The big question is in Nevada. If the Trump campaign doesn’t think they have a chance in Nevada, they may call off all challenges and concede. It does them no good to win in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia if they lose Nevada. They’d still be 5 delegates short and Biden still wins.
The Republicans went through this in 2000 when George W. Bush was the disputed President-elect. He let the system do its thing, and he wasn’t really the winner until the vote ratification in December. Now the shoe is on the other foot for the Democrats, and they need to swallow their own medicine. Take your own advice Joe--be patient and let the system work.
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