The Status Quo Is Changing
Considering that laptops vastly outsell tablets and that tablets have been on a downward sales trend lately I understand that many people might view this claim with a healthy dose of skepticism, but I can’t not say something just because people don’t believe it. Here it goes, laptops are the walking dead.
In the corporate world, we’ve seen this movie before. In the 1990’s everyone had desktop computers except for the privileged few who were issued laptops. These favored ones with their “little” nine pound devices could work from home, take their spreadsheets to the conference room for a meeting, or finish some work on an airplane. Yes, walking through the Atlanta airport carrying one of those behemoths seemed like a reality show torture test but at the time it was astounding how mobile those laptops were. It seemed like magic meant only for those with the initials VP in their job title.
But the way that laptops were rolled out in the corporate setting had an unintended effect. By virtue of those who received them first, the laptop transcended its “tool” status and became a status symbol. If you were a mid-level manager, you wanted a laptop to show that you ran with the big dogs. And once the mid-level managers had them, the senior analysts wanted laptops to show that they too were valued. And so on, until laptops became the dominant form factor in most corporate offices. And once the cost of the laptops fell, the consumer market also tipped in favor of laptops.
Well, this show’s sequel is just beginning. Only now, tablets have usurped the lead role that laptops played back in the nineties. High level executives have been using iPads for a while now. And with the advent of the Surface Pro, tablets have moved beyond leadership and into the trenches where middle managers work. Tablets have a lot of advantages over laptops that make them superior in an office setting. The tipping point where tablets reach critical mass in the corporate world isn’t far off and once that happens everything changes.
Once tablets are in full favor in Corporate America the dynamics of laptop and tablet production cost will radically change. Have you ever asked yourself why a tablet, a simpler device without a keyboard and fewer ports should cost more than a Windows laptop? The one word answer is…volume. When tablets finish their enterprise coup d’état the cost to produce tablets will go down and more ominously, the cost of laptops will go up.
The price of laptops has been going ever down for decades due to growing volume and advances in processor manufacturing. Well, guess what? Volume is now shrinking and processor advances have significantly slowed down. The only thing holding laptop prices down now is an oversupply of manufacturers all competing for business. But as the cost to manufacture laptops rises, these manufacturers will be forced to raise their prices or exit the market.
It all makes sense to me. I spent years of my life analyzing laptop production costs for Gateway. Everyone forgets that the only reason, the screen is hinged to the keyboard is because back then, we couldn’t make screens thin enough to fit the components behind it. We no longer have this problem. Those who cling to the laptop form factor are like the proverbial cook who still chops off the ends of her roast, because that’s the way her mother did it. Because her oven was too narrow.
Once the software kinks are ironed out and the prices come down, I don’t think we’ll see laptops around in a significant way anymore. They won’t completely go away. But they’ll be about as common as tower computers are today. You can say all you want that you’ll never switch to tablets but you can’t keep buying laptops if nobody is making them.
But the way that laptops were rolled out in the corporate setting had an unintended effect. By virtue of those who received them first, the laptop transcended its “tool” status and became a status symbol. If you were a mid-level manager, you wanted a laptop to show that you ran with the big dogs. And once the mid-level managers had them, the senior analysts wanted laptops to show that they too were valued. And so on, until laptops became the dominant form factor in most corporate offices. And once the cost of the laptops fell, the consumer market also tipped in favor of laptops.
Well, this show’s sequel is just beginning. Only now, tablets have usurped the lead role that laptops played back in the nineties. High level executives have been using iPads for a while now. And with the advent of the Surface Pro, tablets have moved beyond leadership and into the trenches where middle managers work. Tablets have a lot of advantages over laptops that make them superior in an office setting. The tipping point where tablets reach critical mass in the corporate world isn’t far off and once that happens everything changes.
Once tablets are in full favor in Corporate America the dynamics of laptop and tablet production cost will radically change. Have you ever asked yourself why a tablet, a simpler device without a keyboard and fewer ports should cost more than a Windows laptop? The one word answer is…volume. When tablets finish their enterprise coup d’état the cost to produce tablets will go down and more ominously, the cost of laptops will go up.
The price of laptops has been going ever down for decades due to growing volume and advances in processor manufacturing. Well, guess what? Volume is now shrinking and processor advances have significantly slowed down. The only thing holding laptop prices down now is an oversupply of manufacturers all competing for business. But as the cost to manufacture laptops rises, these manufacturers will be forced to raise their prices or exit the market.
It all makes sense to me. I spent years of my life analyzing laptop production costs for Gateway. Everyone forgets that the only reason, the screen is hinged to the keyboard is because back then, we couldn’t make screens thin enough to fit the components behind it. We no longer have this problem. Those who cling to the laptop form factor are like the proverbial cook who still chops off the ends of her roast, because that’s the way her mother did it. Because her oven was too narrow.
Once the software kinks are ironed out and the prices come down, I don’t think we’ll see laptops around in a significant way anymore. They won’t completely go away. But they’ll be about as common as tower computers are today. You can say all you want that you’ll never switch to tablets but you can’t keep buying laptops if nobody is making them.
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