Kirk McElhearn on the latest episode of The Committed podcast made an excellent point regarding Apple’s iTunes. That is, the reason that Apple was able to get the record companies on board was due to the havoc that Napster was wreaking on their world and there is no one playing that role now. The presence of a clear and present danger caused these disparate nomadic bands to crown someone king.
That is the missing ingredient this time around with Apple’s efforts to try and get some kind of TV service off the ground. There is no clear villain. Netflix? A respectable business that pays them fees? That’s a toothless tiger. BitTorrent? An arcane system full of land mines. Too small.
It’s hard to imagine Apple ever getting the deals necessary with the media companies to offer a low-cost TV subscription unless there is a Napster-scale threat. That would be a wholesale digital looting by the public that is rampantly stealing any TV show that they want and cancelling their cable subscriptions.