Jeb Kinnison over at the Mansion Engineer website wrote an absolutely devastating critique of Tesla’s Solar Roof product. I highly recommend that you read the whole article here after this short excerpt.
The solar roof tile scam is one of many schemes Musk has employed to keep his hype machine going. The increasing frequency of new business ventures he’s promoted over the past few years are a sign of desperation; his narrative must keep expanding to bring in more cash to keep the Tesla dream alive. Everything from new models (long-haul semi trucks, a pickup truck…) to solar roof tiles and batteries to stabilize the grid. Each one of these ideas has merit, but the shotgun promotions came as the company lost $billions and is years behind schedule in getting Model 3’s out to customers who placed $1000 deposits on the promise of a $35K base model. There is no longer any prospect of a $35K base model, and no money to fund new GigaFactories hyped for China and Europe.—Jeb Kinnison, Mansion Engineer
The whole idea of taking Tesla private is actually irrelevant to Tesla’s situation, if it ever happens. But whoever invests $70 billion in Tesla is going to expect all of that back with a whole lot of interest in the future. And if they don’t get it, they’ll pull the plug. Thus far, Tesla is following exactly the roadmap that I laid out in my book last year.
If Musk really wanted to punish the massive short-interest in the stock, all he’s got to do is start running a profitable business later this year. That’s it. If he starts cranking out Model 3s at a healthy margin this fall, the Shorts would finally give up and exit the stock. Problem solved. Going private now makes Elon look like the kid trash-talking how he's going to beat someone up after school. Only, he ducks out the back door just before the bell rings.
Tesla seems to be in serious trouble and this buyout talk even surprises Tesla skeptics as to how dire their situation actually must be. Tesla just reported a record loss and the stock went up slightly only because the cash burn was not as great as feared. I suspect the reduced cash burn was artificially induced by the usual accounting tricks. Remember all those finance executives which have quit recently? Artificially reduced cash burn is only sustainable for a few months before the pendulum swings back the other way and the cash burn is even greater in the future.
The very idea that Elon Musk wants to go private now, right before the company crosses the finish line, smacks of desperation. A final attempt to survive by finding a new set of deep pockets. But even in the best-case scenario, this only kicks the can down the road another year or two.
The whole idea of taking Tesla private is actually irrelevant to Tesla’s situation, if it ever happens. But whoever invests $70 billion in Tesla is going to expect all of that back with a whole lot of interest in the future. And if they don’t get it, they’ll pull the plug. Thus far, Tesla is following exactly the roadmap that I laid out in my book last year.
If Musk really wanted to punish the massive short-interest in the stock, all he’s got to do is start running a profitable business later this year. That’s it. If he starts cranking out Model 3s at a healthy margin this fall, the Shorts would finally give up and exit the stock. Problem solved. Going private now makes Elon look like the kid trash-talking how he's going to beat someone up after school. Only, he ducks out the back door just before the bell rings.
Tesla seems to be in serious trouble and this buyout talk even surprises Tesla skeptics as to how dire their situation actually must be. Tesla just reported a record loss and the stock went up slightly only because the cash burn was not as great as feared. I suspect the reduced cash burn was artificially induced by the usual accounting tricks. Remember all those finance executives which have quit recently? Artificially reduced cash burn is only sustainable for a few months before the pendulum swings back the other way and the cash burn is even greater in the future.
The very idea that Elon Musk wants to go private now, right before the company crosses the finish line, smacks of desperation. A final attempt to survive by finding a new set of deep pockets. But even in the best-case scenario, this only kicks the can down the road another year or two.
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