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Automotive Evolution Is Not Revolution

5/24/2017

 
What Would Really Change Transportation?
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Blah, blah, blah. I’m so tired of the narrative that these evolutionary changes in transportation are some kind of earth-shattering revolution. Peter Valdes-Dapena, writing for CNNTech goes through his list of how everything with driving is changing:
 
Everything about cars is changing right now. That means how we power them, how drive them and even how we own them. –CNNTech, May 24, 2017
If those three things are changing cars, then the tech world misunderstands the purpose of cars. It’s really not that hard to understand. Cars physically take you to where you want to go. Just like they have for over a hundred years.
 
Who cares how they’re powered, who drives them, or whether we own them or not? Those are all incremental changes to the same old concept.
 
Maybe this would make more sense if I placed the idea into another realm a little less controversial. You need your lawn mowed once a week. Whether your lawnmower is gas powered or electric doesn’t make a huge difference, right? They both accomplish the same task and the makers of electric lawnmowers don’t purport to be changing the world. Even if you decide to hire a lawn service instead of using your own lawnmower, it’s not that big of a deal. The objective is cutting your grass, not fixating on what powers your mower or who pushes it.
 
From a personal standpoint, I’m super excited about self-driving cars. But from a business analysis standpoint, not so much. Automated driving doesn’t impact the master logistics equation as much as many would like you to think. Either they don’t realize it or they are trying to sell you something.
 
So, what would be an example of something truly revolutionary that will change how business functions? 3D printing. Transporting a hundred widgets from San Francisco, California to Dallas, Texas hasn’t changed all that much from the year 1950. Even if we had automated electric trucks in the future, it’s still going to be a similar model. But if you sent the designs for those widgets via the internet and the consumer could print his own widgets, that changes everything.
 
3D printing truly alters the master logistics equation. You’ve slashed two variables in the formula simultaneously, distance and weight. It’s the closest thing we have to Star Trek’s transporter this side of the movie screen.
 
Driverless drones would be another game changer. This radically changes the distance variable via bypassing public roads.
 
I am hopeful about the future of transportation. It’s unfortunate that very few people are writing about the changes that matter.
 
 

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    Robert Perez

    Manufacturing and distribution analysis since 1993.

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