The automobile was revolutionary...in 1906. Back when moving people or objects was changing the world. Railroads jump started the advancement of modern society in the 1800’s by being able to move people and packages at never-before-seen rates. And when the railroad cartel clashed with Rockefeller’s Standard Oil in 1877 the oil pipeline was born. The oil pipeline helped revolutionize the energy industry. These all helped make the 20th century an age of wonders.
But that’s now history. The great company leaders of today are all about moving data, not people or things. Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, among others are changing society by bringing the world to you, not you to the world. The automobile continues to be refined, but it’s major impact on society is over. In fact, it’s going to recede.
If you were to categorize all of the miles driven by people up until now, you’d see 3 major categories.
Category #1 is the largest driver of total miles driven, by far. And modern technology is going to bring that total down. There will be more remote working in the future for many reasons. Total miles driven will rise or fall based on this category.
Category #3 is the smallest category and it’s never going to change much. Why? Because we only have so many hours in the day. It’s much more efficient to visit destinations online than it is in person. You could visit the Louvre in person and spend at least 2 days of your life on it, or you could whip out your iPad while bored and sitting on the couch. Then go back to mowing the lawn or whatever else you want to do.
So with all of this in mind. I struggle to imagine why Apple would feel the need to jump into the car business. When you look at all of Apple’s product lines, they all have one thing in common. They move data or connect people. And when Tim Cook talks about the future, it’s more along these lines. Augmented and virtual reality is the next frontier in the future of tech.
It’s true that cars are now electronic devices which can deliver data. But people spend relatively little time in cars compared to being at their workplace or in their home. Contrast that with their smartphones. People spend relatively little of their waking hours away from their phone. Plus, it’s much easier to upgrade your phone every year than it is your car.
I could imagine that Apple is creating test mules for testing very advanced versions of Apple CarPlay that can deliver maps and data via augmented reality imbedded within the windshields. This would serve to support their current hardware business by giving them a competitive advantage over Android.
But I have a hard time imagining that Apple wants to build and sell cars. For starters, People are going to be driving less in the future. If you think the car business is hard today, just wait ten years. And also, if Apple built a car, they risk turning every current automaker against Apple CarPlay. Who wants to support a competitor trying to steal their sales?
Cars are a stale business that isn’t changing the future much any more. Even Tesla is really more of a Wall Street Ponzi scheme than it is about selling actual cars. Musk predicted that by 2020 they’d be delivering a million cars per year. They just reported their 2020 unit sales and they are nowhere even close.
Personally, I’d love to be wrong and find out that Apple really is building a car. Their design ethos is superb and their commitment to quality is legendary. But if Apple is pursuing automotive technology, it’s to support their iPhone business. That is what has been revolutionizing how we live and work.
If you were to categorize all of the miles driven by people up until now, you’d see 3 major categories.
- People commuting to work.
- People driving for work (truck drivers and taxis)
- Pleasure trips
Category #1 is the largest driver of total miles driven, by far. And modern technology is going to bring that total down. There will be more remote working in the future for many reasons. Total miles driven will rise or fall based on this category.
Category #3 is the smallest category and it’s never going to change much. Why? Because we only have so many hours in the day. It’s much more efficient to visit destinations online than it is in person. You could visit the Louvre in person and spend at least 2 days of your life on it, or you could whip out your iPad while bored and sitting on the couch. Then go back to mowing the lawn or whatever else you want to do.
So with all of this in mind. I struggle to imagine why Apple would feel the need to jump into the car business. When you look at all of Apple’s product lines, they all have one thing in common. They move data or connect people. And when Tim Cook talks about the future, it’s more along these lines. Augmented and virtual reality is the next frontier in the future of tech.
It’s true that cars are now electronic devices which can deliver data. But people spend relatively little time in cars compared to being at their workplace or in their home. Contrast that with their smartphones. People spend relatively little of their waking hours away from their phone. Plus, it’s much easier to upgrade your phone every year than it is your car.
I could imagine that Apple is creating test mules for testing very advanced versions of Apple CarPlay that can deliver maps and data via augmented reality imbedded within the windshields. This would serve to support their current hardware business by giving them a competitive advantage over Android.
But I have a hard time imagining that Apple wants to build and sell cars. For starters, People are going to be driving less in the future. If you think the car business is hard today, just wait ten years. And also, if Apple built a car, they risk turning every current automaker against Apple CarPlay. Who wants to support a competitor trying to steal their sales?
Cars are a stale business that isn’t changing the future much any more. Even Tesla is really more of a Wall Street Ponzi scheme than it is about selling actual cars. Musk predicted that by 2020 they’d be delivering a million cars per year. They just reported their 2020 unit sales and they are nowhere even close.
Personally, I’d love to be wrong and find out that Apple really is building a car. Their design ethos is superb and their commitment to quality is legendary. But if Apple is pursuing automotive technology, it’s to support their iPhone business. That is what has been revolutionizing how we live and work.
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