MacOS Is Going Away
It was quite the splash of cold water to the face this week for the Mac fans. The long-time Mac friendly business Agilebits announced that they were dropping their native Mac app 1Password in favor of a cross-platform electron app. There are more hot takes on this than you count, but the bottom line which everyone agrees on is this, Agilebits didn’t see the Mac market as worth the effort.
Now, the Mac has had an amazing 18 month run. Starting with the bump in Mac sales caused by the covid lockdowns and everyone doing school and work from home. This was followed by the introduction of Apple silicon to the product line which made windows users envious to the max. Sales have never been better. But this is only a temporary distraction from the Mac’s problems. It still remains a relatively small and insignificant market.
If you were to compare the installed base of Macs to Windows, iOS + iPadOS, or Android what is the big thing that jumps out at you? The Mac looks like a fly on an elephants butt. It’s a tiny market. Something has to change for it to remain a viable product line in the future. I’m simply speaking as a financial analyst who has decades of experience in observing product line portfolio management. I’ve been privy to the internal corporate discussions and I have an idea on what must be going on within Apple right now.
Too many Mac fans give too much weight to Craig Federighi’s statement a year or so ago that Apple was committed to the Mac product line and that it wasn’t merging with the iPad. But what does that really mean?
If Ford says that they are fully committed to the Mustang, but they cancel the rear wheel drive V8 version in favor of a front wheel drive EV, does the Mustang still exist? Muscle car fans might say that the Mustang actually died even though the name lives on.
In the automotive world, products get killed all the time where the name lives on or is resurrected later as essentially a different product. I believe that Apple was truthful that the Mac will always be around. But the question is how will they define it? What will Mac mean in the future?
Further, Apple’s commitment to the Mac doesn’t necessarily apply to MacOS. Mac fans might say that MacOS is the heart and soul of the Mac. But Mustang fans might also say that being RWD and having a gasoline engine is the heart and soul of the Mustang. You can do heart transplants in product lines.
In my capacity as a financial analyst, I know what I’d be seriously looking at if I worked for Tim Cook or Phil Schiller. That would be eliminating MacOS and combining the Mac and iPad product lines at a development level.
All the development dollars spent on MacOS spread over the Mac units is much higher than what Apple must spend on iOS/iPadOS per unit. And in world where it’s hard to recruit developers, it would pay off to focus the work of your current stable of programmers in the same direction and not split into two.
From a hardware perspective, I would turn the MacBook line into a line of iPads with connected or removable keyboards. They would be much larger and heavier than the current iPad Pro line. The iPad would continue to mean lightweight personal devices that you carry all over the house with you.
The MacBook product line would be larger screen sizes and connected keyboards that would weigh over 3 pounds. The extra weight would matter less because these devices would be destined to spend the majority of their time on a desk, not in the bedroom.
The tension between the iPad and the Mac would be gone because they’d be using the same OS. The only decision making involved in purchasing would be how large of a screen do you want and do you need an attached or removable keyboard?
The cost-savings to Apple would be huge. And the Mac name lives on as the desktop iPad line. Of course, the name iPad would never be mentioned. Just like the new M1 chip in the MacBook is never, ever, referred to as simply an updated A12. Which it is.
But by the time that Apple kills MacOS, iPadOS would have everything that Mac users would need so there really are no losers in this scenario. The only question is how long would it take Apple to do something like this? The Mac will live on. MacOS, not so much.
If you were to compare the installed base of Macs to Windows, iOS + iPadOS, or Android what is the big thing that jumps out at you? The Mac looks like a fly on an elephants butt. It’s a tiny market. Something has to change for it to remain a viable product line in the future. I’m simply speaking as a financial analyst who has decades of experience in observing product line portfolio management. I’ve been privy to the internal corporate discussions and I have an idea on what must be going on within Apple right now.
Too many Mac fans give too much weight to Craig Federighi’s statement a year or so ago that Apple was committed to the Mac product line and that it wasn’t merging with the iPad. But what does that really mean?
If Ford says that they are fully committed to the Mustang, but they cancel the rear wheel drive V8 version in favor of a front wheel drive EV, does the Mustang still exist? Muscle car fans might say that the Mustang actually died even though the name lives on.
In the automotive world, products get killed all the time where the name lives on or is resurrected later as essentially a different product. I believe that Apple was truthful that the Mac will always be around. But the question is how will they define it? What will Mac mean in the future?
Further, Apple’s commitment to the Mac doesn’t necessarily apply to MacOS. Mac fans might say that MacOS is the heart and soul of the Mac. But Mustang fans might also say that being RWD and having a gasoline engine is the heart and soul of the Mustang. You can do heart transplants in product lines.
In my capacity as a financial analyst, I know what I’d be seriously looking at if I worked for Tim Cook or Phil Schiller. That would be eliminating MacOS and combining the Mac and iPad product lines at a development level.
All the development dollars spent on MacOS spread over the Mac units is much higher than what Apple must spend on iOS/iPadOS per unit. And in world where it’s hard to recruit developers, it would pay off to focus the work of your current stable of programmers in the same direction and not split into two.
From a hardware perspective, I would turn the MacBook line into a line of iPads with connected or removable keyboards. They would be much larger and heavier than the current iPad Pro line. The iPad would continue to mean lightweight personal devices that you carry all over the house with you.
The MacBook product line would be larger screen sizes and connected keyboards that would weigh over 3 pounds. The extra weight would matter less because these devices would be destined to spend the majority of their time on a desk, not in the bedroom.
The tension between the iPad and the Mac would be gone because they’d be using the same OS. The only decision making involved in purchasing would be how large of a screen do you want and do you need an attached or removable keyboard?
The cost-savings to Apple would be huge. And the Mac name lives on as the desktop iPad line. Of course, the name iPad would never be mentioned. Just like the new M1 chip in the MacBook is never, ever, referred to as simply an updated A12. Which it is.
But by the time that Apple kills MacOS, iPadOS would have everything that Mac users would need so there really are no losers in this scenario. The only question is how long would it take Apple to do something like this? The Mac will live on. MacOS, not so much.
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