Summary
- Tesla needs to be valued as an automaker first and foremost, as installed base is what matters in the near-term.
- The top 20 auto OEMs globally are aiming to produce 20m BEVs and potentially 30m plug-in hybrids in 2030 vs. total demand of just 28m electrified vehicles.
- Tesla has an intense market share war ahead of it, which could last the better of the next 10 years.
- With Tesla's market cap now 2x the 5 largest auto OEMs combined, downgrades to the sales volume outlook, which are likely in my opinion, could spark a sharp selloff. I am thus negative on the stock.