With developments in artificial intelligence continuing at a chaotic pace, fears of robots ultimately replacing humans are increasing.However, while AI continues to master an increasing number of tasks, we’re still decades away from human jobs going extinct. With AI finding its way into more and more domains, the demand for tech talent is growing.—Ben Dickson, The Next Web
We’re not saying that automation isn’t already replacing humans or about to in the short term. I agree that is happening. But the law of unintended consequences causes offsets.
For instance, Lets say that 15% of all long-haul truck drivers are replaced by self-driving trucks within 15 years. Is that a negative? Not necessarily. Technology is also causing people to give up on getting their own merchandise from the local store and ordering it online.
It’s much more efficient for a national transportation infrastructure to deliver full truckloads to local staging points (stores) and have consumers pick up their items. Moving to an online system where customers are willing to have items shipped directly to their door is much less efficient and is causing trucking miles travelled to increase.
Small shipments to individual houses on the rise will result in exponential growth in the transportation industry. Even if we moved to a drone-centric model that would require many more distribution centers then exist today. 85% of a much larger pie could actually mean there are more truck drivers in the future than now.
But even if there is a loss, the net loss will be much less then most people think because they aren’t modeling the full impact. They’re only adding up the losses.
Steve Mnuchin Gets Automation